| Aug. 16th, 2007 @ 10:03 pm A.L. Cy Young Race and "Expected Wins" |
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I know you all missed my daily update yesterday. Well, I'm back. This time around, I'm looking at the American League Cy Young race for 2007. Listed below are the top six candidates as I perceive them currently (Josh Beckett, Erik Bedard, C.C. Sabathia, Dan Haren, Kelvim Escobar, and John Lackey), as of the morning of August 16th, 2007. I've included the following stats in this order: wins, losses, ERA, ERA+, Ks, K/9, WHIP, and one special category that I created myself. I call it the "expected wins" category.
It works like this: for every start in which the starter went 5 or more innings with an ERA of 4.00 or below, he got a win. For every start in which his ERA was higher than 4.99, he got a loss. Every start, regardless of innings pitched, in which the ERA fell between or on 4.00 or 4.99, he was given a no decision. If the pitcher failed to complete 5 innings, but had an ERA under 4.40 for the innings he did pitch, he received a no decision. If the pitcher allows 3 earned runs, and two or more unearned runs per game, he is given a loss. This adjustment is meant to be reflective of a pitcher's ability to pitch around errors when they occur and work their ways out of jams.
The method was a bit arbitrary admittedly, but its basis lies in the statistic of "quality starts". In the last few years, "quality starts" have been used to define the number of times that a starting pitcher has had a start good enough to keep the team in the game. It is defined as any start in which the pitcher gives up 3 or fewer runs in 6 or more innings pitched. That sets the maximum possible ERA for a quality start at 4.50 (although the quality start stat for some reason is not quite forgiving to pitchers who go 8 or 9 innings and give up 4 earned runs, for a 4.50 and 4.00ERA respectively). From this 'maximum quality start ERA', I have a half-run cushion on both sides to encompass a moderate range outside of 4.50, thus 4.00-4.99. This allows for minor fluctuations in run support from one game to the next. The 'quality start' is not so much a measure of a pitcher deserving to win as it is an indicator of whether or not they kept their team in the game. The broader range I have created is to allow for starts in which the starter reasonably kept his offense in the game. Over all, the end product should be far more indicative of how much a starting pitcher did to keep his offense in a game than the current wins and losses do. I fully acknowledge the system is flawed, but I do it in order to be fair to all pitchers concerned. In a perfect world, with more time on my hands and more statistics to easily work into the system, I would make a few adjustments. For now, behold my six Cy Young candidates.
Josh Beckett: 15W-5L, 3.24ERA, 139ERA+, 140Ks, 8.55K/9, 1.11WHIP, 14XW-5XL
Erik Bedard: 12W-4L, 2.98ERA, 148ERA+, 207Ks, 11.02K/9, 1.08WHIP, 18XW-5XL
C.C. Sabathia: 14W-6L, 3.48ERA, 126ERA+, 162Ks, 8.06K/9, 1.20WHIP, 16XW-6XL
Dan Haren: 13W-4L, 2.54ERA, 170ERA+, 138Ks, 7.17K/9, 1.13WHIP, 17XW-4XL
Kelvim Escobar: 13W-6L, 2.68ERA, 160ERA+, 124Ks, 7.06K/9, 1.18WHIP, 18XW-3XL
John Lackey: 15W-6L, 3.07ERA, 140ERA+, 126Ks, 7.03K/9, 1.24WHIP, 16XW-3XL
There you have it. The six Cy Young candidates broken down statistically, using the essential indicators along with a new, adjusted indicator that I am using for myself.
Looking at the numbers, I find it hard to vote right now for anyone other than Erik Bedard. Not only has his W-L record been cheated significantly (second only to Kelvim Escobar on this list), but his ERA+ 3rd out of the list, while he completely dominates Ks, and K/9 while holding a slight edge in WHIP over everyone else. Notice that, of the six, Josh Beckett is the only pitcher to have gained wins from his offense's production, while all others lost at least one win. Escobar and Lackey, both Angels have received the most undue losses (surprise, surprise) of the pitchers on the list, whereas most of the others simply ended up with no decisions when their offense failed them. If I had to draw up a ballot today, Bedard's got my vote. The six would go as follows:
1) Erik Bedard
2) Dan Haren
3) Kelvim Escobar
4) John Lackey
5) Josh Beckett
6) C.C. Sabathia
Tune in next time for the National League, folks! |
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